This article was first published in the On the Hill newsletter on Friday morning before Sen. Lindsey Graham passed away. We offer condolences to his family and loved ones. Look for additional reporting this week on how Graham’s passing will affect the Republican agenda, and sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Friday mornings here.
As you’ll remember from previous editions, Republicans are approaching a crucial moment. They’re heading into a midterm election where the odds historically trend against the majority party, and internal fighting has been flaring and stalling progress.
The last two weeks in the House, Republican leaders have been forced to cancel votes and abandon plans to move on must-pass legislation. That’s because there is growing unrest among key factions within the party — and it could threaten their standing heading into an already-consequential election cycle.
There are a handful of fights that Republicans will return to on Monday, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has his work cut out for him. Here is what’s on his plate:
NDAA. The annual defense bill, which usually passes with wide bipartisan margins, is currently on the line.
The National Defense Authorization Act, which outlines the proposed budget for the Pentagon but does not formally approve the actual spending, was scheduled for a final vote in the House last week. But GOP leaders were forced to pivot and ultimately cancel votes after 14 Republicans joined all Democrats to oppose a crucial procedural hurdle that would’ve advanced the package.
More on the procedural process and how everything fell apart here.
That procedural vote, known as the rule, must be passed in order for legislation to be voted on. And it typically is a party-line vote, meaning Democrats opposed it even though they support one of the underlying bills.
So with slim margins in the House, this gives rank-and-file Republicans quite a bit of sway. They’ve used it before, and now lawmakers are taking full advantage of Johnson’s minimal majority — and we are seeing that from several corners all at once.
That’s what happened with the NDAA, which needs to be passed to authorize the spending bill drafted by appropriators.
A GOP coalition led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., voted against the rule, vowing to tank any piece of legislation unless it includes the SAVE America Act. That, as you know by now, is Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s voter ID and proof-of-citizenship bill.
Luna wants the text of the SAVE America Act added to the NDAA because she argues it will ensure its passage in the Senate. That is not necessarily true, as the Senate can still — and probably will — strip that language out if it’s included.
Johnson opted for another method, adding language to the rule that if the NDAA passes the House, the SAVE America Act would be automatically attached to the defense bill when it’s sent over to the Senate. That, in Johnson’s view, would create a sense of mutually assured survival: If the Republican rebels want SAVE, they’d have to support the rule.
That gambit ultimately failed. Luna is still adamant to attach SAVE her preferred way, through the amendment process.
Even if Johnson can somehow find his way out of this mess, it’s possible it’s all for nothing. The Senate is drafting its own version of the NDAA, which it will later negotiate with the House, so the likelihood that SAVE stays in there is pretty low.
HR2. While Luna was wreaking havoc on the floor, there’s another rebellion brewing among House Republicans.
While a good number of the 14 Republicans voting against the rule did so because of SAVE, there were a handful of others who did it for another reason.
Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, led his own coalition of Republicans who voted against the rule in retaliation for what they view as a broken promise from Johnson. Flashback to last month when Johnson needed to get his party on board with passing their major immigration funding package.
To convince some conservative members who believed the bill didn’t go far enough, Johnson promised he would schedule a vote on a sweeping border surveillance and security bill — known as HR2 — before July 4.
Spoiler alert: Johnson didn’t do that. So Roy and others in the conservative Freedom Caucus withheld their support from the other legislation that did make the schedule that week.
“They came to us, assured us, made a promise. And then we kept our side of the promise. ... Then they don’t keep their side of the promise,” said Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Mo., who voted down the rule. “At some point, you’ve got to keep people to their word.”
I’ll be keeping an eye on whether that bill does in fact get a vote over the next two weeks — or if it falls to the wayside.
FISA. The key government surveillance tool used to track foreign threats is still dark — nearly a month after it first expired.
The question here is whether lawmakers will actually prioritize bringing it back online, or if it will have to wait until later this year. It’s a sticky issue, and one that has varying support within both parties. But there could be some movement this week.
The Senate Intelligence Committee will hold its confirmation hearing for Jay Clayton to be the next director of national intelligence next week. This will officially start the process to approve Clayton and replace acting director Bill Pulte, who Democrats have denounced.
Pulte’s appointment prompted some Democrats in the House and Senate to say they wouldn’t renew the program until he was removed — so Clayton’s confirmation hearing is a good sign for them.
Senate Republicans are hopeful they can quickly move through the nomination process and approve Clayton before they leave for the monthlong August recess. That could break the stalemate on FISA, either temporarily or for a longer term.
Appropriations. And last but not least, the issue that always plagues Congress this time of year: appropriations season.
To clear up some of the inside baseball terminology here, appropriations is simply the annual spending bills that approve the budget for the federal government. Discretionary government spending is divided between 12 appropriations bills covering federal departments and agencies.
The deadline for these bills to be passed is Oct. 1 because that’s the start date of the new fiscal year. But Congress rarely meets that deadline — in fact, they haven’t been on time since 1996. (That’s longer than I’ve been alive, for reference.)
Usually what happens if Congress doesn’t meet the deadline is either they pass a temporary extension of existing spending levels, known as a continuing resolution, or the government enters a shutdown. That’s what happened last fall when we witnessed the longest-ever full shutdown in U.S. history.
Republicans are already preparing for an escape hatch as some believe that Democrats will want a shutdown. However, there hasn’t been much indication they truly want to do it again, and who knows whether that would help Democrats as they try to win control of Congress.
But Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is circulating a plan to other Senate Republicans to consider passing a continuing resolution to extend spending until after the midterm elections, hoping that it won’t snarl campaigns. Of course, this plan would need buy-in from Democrats in the Senate — who Scott says don’t want to help keep the government open.
We’ll see how that goes. Appropriators, of course, want to be given the time and space to do their jobs. After all, Congress holds the power of the purse — and they want to keep it that way.
Only two of the 12 appropriations bills have been passed by the House, and the remaining 10 have been approved by committees and are awaiting a final vote. None have been passed in the Senate or approved by individual committees.
Stories Driving the Week
- Charlie Kirk trial live updates: The preliminary hearing in the murder trial of Tyler Robinson, accused of assassinating Charlie Kirk, began Monday in Provo, Utah. Robinson, the man charged in the Sept. 10, 2025, killing, faces several counts, including aggravated murder. The prosecution is seeking the death penalty.
- Ceasefire deal on ice: The United States and Iran exchanged strikes again on Thursday, marking the second straight day of attacks between the two countries and further threatening the peace deal signed by top officials just one month ago.
- Senate showdown: The countdown to November’s midterm elections is on, with primary races underway across the country. Democrats are hoping to flip control of the Senate with a few key toss-up races, while Republicans are looking to hold on to their majority in the upper chamber.
Democrats already planning for a future where they are in control
While Republicans are busy wrangling their small majority right now, Democrats are already eyeing their plans for a future in which they win the White House.
Democrats are floating a plan called Project 2029 — a nod to Republicans’ Project 2025 they advertised during the 2024 election and has served a blueprint for President Donald Trump’s second term — that can be used if they take over the White House in 2028.
The plan could similarly be used as a blueprint for Democratic candidates and the eventual nominee as the party hopes to shift away from the anti-Trump messaging they leaned on during the 2024 election.
There are several sections already outlined on their website that touch on health care policy, education, immigration, and affordability, as well as one section simply stating “Day One Policies.”
For example, one proposal would target child care affordability by offering either free, publicly-funded child care or distributing $1,000 “care credits” each month to families who choose to opt out of the public option.
The group will continue rolling out different policy proposals over the coming months as more Democrats consider throwing their hats into the ring.
Will it work? That’s anybody’s best guess. The key difference here is that several people involved in Republicans’ Project 2025 were close allies of Trump or worked in his first administration, so some of the policies were more tailored to his platform.
But this blueprint comes as several (ideologically different) Democrats consider a presidential run in 2028 — so there is a risk that not all candidates will be on the same page about some of these policy proposals. In that case, you could risk voters viewing Democrats as not being unified on messaging, or it can cause larger confusion about what the party’s goals are for a potential Democratic administration in the future.
Quick Hits
From the Hill: Graham Platner suspends campaign in Maine amid sexual assault allegations. … Kentucky governor requests health update on Sen. Mitch McConnell amid 3-week hospital stay. … The Senate’s most “normal” maverick took a 250-mile hike across Utah to rediscover America’s heart.
From the White House: Trump grants Ukraine ability to build U.S. Patriot missiles. … Trump arrives at NATO summit with focus on Russia, Iran and military spending. … Heat, storms, chaos ... and then fireworks. How Trump and D.C. crowds saluted America.
From the courts: Faith groups, states and Trump administration urge Supreme Court to overturn Colorado law. … Utah County woman shares emotional moment with Erika Kirk during trial.
What’s next
The House returns Monday for a two-week session. The Senate is back Monday for three weeks.
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